Alrosa’s rough diamond auction at HK realizes $10.2 million

We publish courtesy of Diamond World

Alrosa’s diamond auction at the Hong Kong Gem & Jewellery Fair has realized $10.2 million or sale of 81 lots of the 89 lots on offer. The auction comprised of special sized rough diamonds, in all totaling 1,605.54 carats. Of these three rough diamonds were larger than 50 carats each.

There was also an auction of polished diamonds, which achieved sales of 69 polished diamonds or 264.66 carats. The sales amounted to $3.3 million. In this sale, the lots that were unsold included 10 polished diamonds having a total weight of 21.34 carats.

TanzaniteOne posts half-year profit, output up 21%

We publish courtesy of Mining Weekly

Author: Chanel de Bruyn

JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Aim-listed TanzaniteOne produced 1,05-million carats of tanzanite in the first half of 2010, up 21% on the 867 381 ct produced in the first half of 2009.

The gem miner on Monday reported a return to profit, recording a $705 000 after-tax profit in the six months ended June 30, 2010, up from a net loss of $580 000 in the six months ended June 2009.

Revenues were up 74% to $8,6-million in the first half of this year, compared with the $4,9-million in revenues earned the year before.

The sale of 855 847 ct of rough tanzanite, at an average price of $8,07/ct, contributed $6,91-million to overall revenues for the six months.

The balance of the revenue was earned from the sale of cut stones, TanzaniteOne told shareholders in a statement, noting that its own cutting, polishing and sales division was providing a growing revenue stream.

Higher tanzanite prices and improvements in the quality and quantity of tanzanite production had also led to an improved gross margin for the company, the world’s largest miner of the rare gemstone reported.

Meanwhile, the gem miner noted that it was still negotiating with the government of Tanzania with regard to the development of domestic cutting operations, following a ban on the export of rough tanzanite larger than 5 ct implemented earlier this year.

In August, TanzaniteOne announced that it would be allowed to export all its rough tanzanite production, including stones larger than 5 ct, until December 31, while it evaluates the development of local cutting operations.

The company plans to expand its in-house cutting and training capabilities through existing relationships with overseas experts, in addition to entering into agreements with external beneficiation companies in Tanzania.

The company was targeting the production of 2,2-million carats of Tanzanite for the 2010 full year.

GIA officially opens Hong Kong lab

Senior Vice President of GIA Laboratory and Research Tom Moses, far right, gave attendees a tour of Gemological Institute of America's new Hong Kong lab during its formal opening ceremony on Sept 15. Image courtesy of GIA Hong Kong.

Hong Kong–The Gemological Institute of America (GIA) formally opened its Hong Kong laboratory with a ribbon-cutting ceremony that was attended by more than 125 industry leaders last week. It is GIA’s fifth international location.

GIA President and Chief Executive Officer Donna Baker remarked at the opening that GIA’s presence in the vibrant Hong Kong market is essential, noting that the GIA has operated a diamond and gemstone take-in facility in Hong Kong for four years and a Hong Kong school for nearly 20 years.

“Hong Kong is home to a thriving and sophisticated gem and jewelry industry,” Baker said, according to a news release. “Hundreds of students have successfully completed their Graduate Gemologist education programs with us and have created fulfilling careers in retail, manufacturing and design, among others. We believe our lab will make it even more convenient for those professionals to access our services and promulgate the international gemological standards GIA has established in its nearly 80-year history.”

Officiating at the opening were Lawrence Ma, founding chairman of the Diamond Federation of Hong Kong; Gregory So, undersecretary of Commerce and Economic Development for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; New World Group Chairman Cheng Yu Tung; Ephraim Zion, managing director of Dehres Ltd. and a member of the GIA board; Senior Vice President of GIA Laboratory and Research Tom Moses; Wai Man Cheng, director of the Hong Kong laboratory and Kathryn Kimmel, vice president and chief marketing officer of GIA.

During the ceremony, attendees toured the lab, which will offer on-site services for GIA Diamond Grading Reports and Diamond Dossiers, laser inscription and diamond sealing services.

The lab is located in Room 1411, New World Tower, 18 Queen’s Road Central in Hong Kong.

De Beers branded diamond creeps closer to U.S.

We publish courtesy of National Jeweler

London—Forevermark, De Beers’ branded diamond that is available across Asia, will be making its way into the Western Hemisphere, the diamond giant announced Thursday.

After reaching $150 million in retail sales in its first 18 months on the market, Forevermark will be made available in Mexico and select Caribbean islands, as well as in India and Singapore, before the end of the year.

According to a media release from De Beers, Caribbean retailer Diamonds International will carry Forevermark diamonds and diamond jewelry in seven doors in the Caribbean and Mexico. Information on the locations of those seven doors was not immediately available.

The miner-turned-retailer is barred from selling the branded diamond in the United States due to antitrust laws, but now, De Beers will be making Forevermark available at jewelry stores where American tourists shop to take advantage of Diamonds International’s duty-free status.

Diamonds International, which bills itself as the “largest duty-free jeweler in the world,” operates more than 125 jewelry stores throughout the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America and recently opened stores in Key West, Fla., Alaska and Las Vegas. The company’s corporate headquarters are in New York City.

In Singapore, Aspial and Lee Hwa stores will carry Forevermark, while in India, where the branded stone has had a presence at select private events since late 2009, De Beers is in talks with a number of retailers. De Beers plans to select authorized Forevermark dealers in India before the end of the year.

“We launched Forevermark a little more than two years ago with the goal of becoming the world’s leading diamond brand,” Forevermark Chief Executive Officer Stephen Lussier said in the release. “We wanted to develop a brand that not only defines quality and integrity within the diamond industry but that also inspires leading independents jewelry manufacturers and retailers to create precious and exciting diamond jewelry. We believe that growing into these new and vibrant markets is bringing us closer to realizing that goal.”

Each Forevermark diamond is inscribed with a unique identification number and the Forevermark logo and is graded at a Forevermark-specific lab. The minimum requirements for a Forevermark stone are 0.18 carats, SI2 clarity, J color and a cut rated “good.”

Diamonds Secretly Auctioned by Zimbabwe

We publish courtesy of Diamond Price Guide

Despite the fact that Zimbabwe’s diamond industry has been in the international spotlight for nearly a year now due to suspicions of foul-play, human rights abuses and diamond smuggling, the Mines Ministry is doing its best to sell its stones.

This weekend a secret auction of Zimbabwe diamonds from its controversial Marange fields took place at an undisclosed location in Harare from Septeber 9th to September 13th, 2010.  The auction was technically approved by the Kimberley Process (KP), the international diamond watchdog established to eradicate the trade of conflict diamonds and was supervised by Abby Chikane, a monitor from the KP.

Officials refused to disclose the quantity of diamonds auctioned to international buyers or the amount of money netted by the sale. “We will not be releasing the quantity or amount that was generated because these were private sales by private companies,” said Thankful Musukuta, Secretary for Mines.

“No other country in the world releases their sales figures or quantities.  When it comes to the issues of diamonds we must be careful as a country because of the sensitivity of the issues associated with them.”

Regardless of Zimbabwe’s desire to keep statistics of the sale hidden from the public, sources close to the sale told Rapaport News that nearly 500,000 carats of diamonds from the Marange mine were sold.

Despite the KPs approval and supervision, many critics of Zimbabwe’s diamond trade have voiced their suspicions about this recent secret diamond auction. Some have denounced the auction’s secrecy saying that the lack of transparency in the sale may be dangerous.  They believe that auctions such as these make it easy for international diamond traders to skirt laws against dealing with companies on the US and European Union (EU) sanctions list.

The American based Rapaport Diamond Trading Netword (RapNet) has already prohibited its members from trading stones mined from the controversial Marange diamond fields.

It was less than a year ago that the Kimberley Process suspended Zimbabwe’s privilege  to produce or sell diamonds from their Marange diamond fields when investigators discovered that soldiers managing the mines had beaten nearby residents and forced them to work in the diamond mine.

Although Zimbabwe’s KP suspension has since been lifted, the weekend sale was the second and last auction authorized by the KP until the organization completes a second investigation.  Further sales will be allowed if and only if investigators can confirm that the military has ceased to control the mines and has ended all human rights abuses in the Marange diamond fields near the Mozambican border.

Zimbabwe completed its first sale of diamonds from the Marange mines last month, auctioning off 900,000 carats and netting approximately $30 million, under supervision by the KP.  The next sale, pending the KP’s approval, is expected to be scheduled for October.

Zimbabwe claims that the military no longer runs the Marange diamond fields, reporting that field operations in those areas have been contracted to two small South African companies, Mbada Diamonds and Canadile Miners.  A third Chinese company has also been permitted to operate there.

Some Facts You Didn’t Know About Diamonds

We publish courtesy of Israeli Diamond Industry Blog

Author: Roe kalb

The word “diamond” comes from the Greek “adamas” – unbreakable or unconquerable. Diamonds are the hardest natural substance on earth, but they are not indestructible. When a diamond is placed in a microwave and the temperature is raised to 1405 degrees F (763 C), the diamond will vaporize, leaving nothing but carbon dioxide residue.

Mines

Diamonds are reputed to be 58 times harder than the second-hardest mineral on earth – corundum – which forms rubies and sapphires. Despite many attempts to use different tools to cut diamonds, eventually people figured out that only a diamond could cut another diamond. Nevertheless, despite their hardness, diamonds are brittle and will shatter if struck with a hammer.
Diamonds are formed over a very long time. Diamond formation takes place some 150 kilometers deep in the earth’s crust over the course of a billion years. Volcanic eruptions force them to the planet’s surface in a type of rock called kimberlite.

Other diamonds are found in or by rivers (alluvial deposits) or even in the sea floor, as in off the coast of Namibia. The largest known diamond in the world is the Cullinan, which was found in South Africa and originally weighed 3000 carats.

Diamond Ring

The original rough Cullinan was three times larger than the world’s next-largest diamond, the Excelsior, which was also unearthed in South Africa.  Later, the Cullinan was cut into the 530.2-carat Great Star of Africa, the 317.4-carat Star of Africa, and several other diamonds, which are now part of the British crown jewels. The largest documented polished diamond is the Unnamed Brown, now known as the Golden Jubilee, which in its rough form weighed 700 carats and totaled 545 carats after being cut – a process that took three years.

The Centenary Diamond, another British crown jewel, also took three years to be cut. At a weight of 273.85 carats, it is reputed to be the largest flawless diamond.

Diamond

Not all diamonds are white. Impurities or exposure to certain elements during formation can give diamonds a blue, gray, orange, red, pink, yellow, green, or black color, with vivid blue, pink, and green being the rarest. While diamonds themselves are plentiful, only some 20% are rated gem-quality (appropriate for jewelry). The rest are used primarily in industry.

Progress has been made in developing synthetic diamonds. Under the recipe devised by scientist James Ballantyne Hannay, lithium is mixed with paraffin and bone oil, and then heated in iron tubes. Modern methods involve crystallizing carbon under immense pressure. Because synthetic diamonds are cheaper than natural diamonds, but not even industry experts can tell them apart, they are becoming a big business.

Diamonds are weighed differently from gold. The gold karat measurement indicates purity, whereas a diamond carat refers to weight, with one carat equal to 200 milligrams. The term carat derives from the Arabic qirat (carob). In ancient times, gem traders would weigh stones against carob seeds because of the seed’s almost-perfect uniform size and weight.  The same carat measurement applies to both natural and synthetic diamonds.

Diamonds

The custom of wearing a diamond engagement ring on one’s fourth finger comes from the ancient Egyptians, who believed that the “vein of love” ran directly between the fourth finger and the heart. And on the subject of diamond engagement rings, the tradition dates back to the Archduke Maximilian, who presented his fiancée, Mary of Burgundy, with a diamond betrothal ring.
The famous slogan “A Diamond is Forever” is often associated with diamonds. The ad campaign launched in 1947 to push diamonds to a wider consumer market. The strategy worked, and “A Diamond is Forever” was voted the best ad slogan of the 20th century.

Rio Tinto Debuts Argyle Pink Diamonds in China

We publish courtesy of Rapaport

Author: Avi Krawitz

Rio Tinto is showcasing its Argyle pink tender diamonds on mainland China for the first time, the company reported.

Jean-Marc Lieberherr, general manager for sales and marketing for Rio Tinto Diamonds, said the decision to present the goods in China was a reflection of the growing appreciation for rare colored diamond in the Chinese market.

The collection of 55 stones is available for viewing in China to a select group of diamantaires, collectors and connoisseurs.  Following its initial previews in Hong Kong and at the Australian pavilion at the Shanghai World Expo, the Argyle Pink Diamonds Tender will be showcased in Shanghai and Beijing in partnership with Chinese retailer, Chow Tai Fook.

The highlight of this year’s tender is a round, 2.02 carat, brilliant fancy vivid pink diamond named Argyle Mystra (pictured). The 2010 collection is titled Earth Magic.

After China, the diamonds will be shipped to New York for viewing before returning to Australia in time for the bid deadline of October 26.

Jade From China’s West Surpasses Gold in Value

Trading jade at an outdoor jade bazaar in Khotan.

We publish courtesy of The New York Times

Author: ANDREW JACOBS

KHOTAN, China — As long as anyone here can remember, the muddy river that flows through this oasis city in southern Xinjiang has yielded creamy white stones, their rough edges polished smooth by the waters that tumble down the mountains from Tibet.

And as long as anyone can remember, those stones — a type of semitranslucent jade — were about as valued as, well, a pile of river rocks.

Lohman Tohti, 30, can recall as a child heaving melon-size hunks into the sandbags that were used to thwart rising floodwaters of the aptly named White Jade River. When Chinese buyers began arriving here in the early 1990s and the locals got wind of the stones’ potential value, his uncle made an enviable deal: he traded a rock the girth of a well-fed hog for a skinny cow. “Today, my uncle would be a millionaire,” Mr. Tohti, now a jade dealer, said with a wince.

These days, Khotan is mad about jade, or at least the riches it has brought to a city whose previous bout of prosperity occurred a few thousand years ago, when traders from ancient Rome and Constantinople were making their way toward Xi’an, then the capital of the Chinese empire and the eastern terminus of the Silk Road.

Ounce for ounce, the finest jade has become more valuable than gold, with the most prized nuggets of “mutton fat” jade — so-named for its marbled white consistency — fetching $3,000 an ounce, a tenfold increase from a decade ago.

The jade boom, which appears to have reached a frenzy in the past year or two, has been fueled by the Chinese, whose new wealth and a 5,000-year affinity for the stone has turned Khotan cotton farmers into jade tycoons.

“The love of jade is in our blood, and now that people have money, everyone wants a piece around their neck or in their home,” Zhang Xiankuo, a Chinese salesman, said as he opened a safe to show off his company’s most expensive carved items, among them a pair of kissing swans that retails for $150,000 and a contemporary rendition of a Tang dynasty beauty, her breasts impertinently exposed, that can be purchased for $80,000.

In a region convulsed by ethnic strife, it is notable that the manna appears to have enriched both Khotan’s native Uighurs, Turkic-speaking adherents of Islam, and the more recently arrived Han Chinese, who are often viewed unlovingly as rapacious colonizers.

The Uighurs have largely made their fortune harvesting jade from the river and selling it to Chinese middlemen. Because devout Muslims are proscribed from dealing in certain representational images, the Han have come to monopolize the carving and sale of Buddhist figurines, stalking tigers and the miniature cabbages that are popular among Chinese consumers.

“Jade has no meaning for our culture, but we are thankful to Allah that the Chinese go crazy for it,” said Yacen Ahmat, a Uighur who spends seven days a week working the crowds at Khotan’s jade bazaar, a frenetic marketplace dominated by prospectors trying to unload their catch on savvy wholesalers — or hapless tourists who often return home with overpriced rocks.

Hu Xianli, a self-professed jade fanatic from eastern Zhejiang Province, said he had been duped countless times over the years. At best, he has grossly overpaid for mediocre specimens. At worst, he has mistaken chemically treated rocks for mutton-fat beauties.

A retired railway engineer, he likened his relationship with jade to an overpriced college education. “In the early years I paid a lot of tuition, but now that I’ve finally graduated, I’m not so easily fooled,” said Mr. Hu, 59, as a throng of overeager sellers, hands full of egg-size stones, thrust their wares into his face.

Although archaeologists have unearthed Neolithic jade tools along the Yellow River, the Chinese affection for the stone received a lift around 1600 B.C., when Shang dynasty royals took to sleeping on jade pillows, signing edicts with jade chops and interring their loved ones in jade-tile frocks. Legend suggests that only emperors were allowed to possess carved jade and that the pursuit of an especially cherished specimen might be worth the deaths of 10,000 soldiers. It is no coincidence that the Chinese character for king has the same root as the character for jade.

Contemporary Chinese is flecked with references to jade — the word is used to describe beautiful and pure women — and many people say they believe it has medicinal and even magical powers. A chip of jade worn around the wrist can soothe a frightened child, improve circulation or absorb bad energy, the Chinese say. According to an age-old belief, jade provides a link between the physical and spiritual worlds.

Some of those beliefs are bolstered by the jade’s tendency to change color when worn on the body.

Another reason behind the spike in Khotan jade prices, at least according to traders, is that the jade is becoming increasingly scarce. Over the past decade, bulldozers and excavators have torn apart the banks of the White Jade River several times over. Until the practice was banned three years ago, mining companies, some owned by local government officials, would divert the river in their quest to find new quarry.

Even if river jade is increasingly hard to find, the promise of instant riches brings entire families to the river, where they can be seen, heads bowed, pacing the banks. The lucky ones head straight to the bazaar, where crowds of Uighur men in embroidered skullcaps ogle and haggle over the latest finds.

Skeptics, however, say the rising prices have more to do with hype than scarcity. Wang Chunyun, a jade expert at the Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, says a thick lode of unexploited white jade runs through the Kunlun Mountains that skirt Xinjiang and Tibet. It can also be found across the world, from Australia to Korea to Poland, where a lack of demand keeps it unmined. “The rarity of jade is a myth,” Mr. Wang said in a telephone interview. “I’ve never said this to Chinese businessmen because it would be too much of a psychological blow.”

Back at the market, Ai Shan Zhang, a well-to-do Uighur salesman, shook his head and smiled when it was suggested that Khotan jade might not be as precious as diamonds. The Chinese zeal for it is so great, he said, that he has stopped wearing it, especially when meeting with government officials whose favor is sometimes required in the course of doing business. “If they notice a nice piece hanging around my neck, they ask to borrow it,” he said. “And once they take it, they never give it back.”

Rare vivid blue diamond up for sale at NYC auction

Author: ULA ILNYTZKY (Associated Press)

This undated photo provided in New York by Christie's Images LTD.2010, shows a two-stone ring with a 10.95-carat triangular-shaped blue diamond. The ring, designed by the Italian luxury jeweler Bulgari, is expected to bring in excess of $15 million when it's offered for sale Oct. 20, 2010, in New York. The ring is paired with a 9.87-carat white diamond. (AP Photo/Christie's Images LTD.2010)

NEW YORK — A two-stone ring with a rare triangular blue diamond the size of a quarter on a gold band with baguette-cut diamonds could bring at least $15 million when it is offered at auction in New York next month.

At 10.95 carats, the stone is the largest triangular-shaped fancy vivid blue diamond ever to come to auction, Christie’s told The Associated Press in advance of the Oct. 20 sale. It is paired with a 9.87-carat white diamond cut in the same shape.

“Vivid blue is the strongest and purest saturation in any colored diamond,” said Rahul Kadakia, Christie’s jewelry expert. “As a vivid, this is as good as it gets.”

The two diamonds were cut to be together.

“They are perfectly matched in size and shape. They may be different in terms of weight, but the measurements are perfect. These two stones are made for each other,” Kadakia said.

The Gemological Institute of America said the blue stone in Christie’s sale is the largest triangular-shaped fancy vivid blue diamond they’ve ever graded, Kadakia said.

It is being sold by an anonymous European businessman. Kadakia described him as “someone with a very, very keen eye” who purchased the ring for $1 million from Italian luxury jeweler Bulgari in Rome in 1972 — a gift to his wife for the birth of their son. The couple went on to have three more children, celebrating each birth with an important gift.

Bulgari’s distinctive geometric forms, classic Greek and Roman influences and unusual combinations of colored and colorless diamonds have long adorned celebrities and movie stars, including Grace Kelly, Audrey Hepburn and Elizabeth Taylor.

Last year, a 7.03-carat cushion-cut blue diamond sold at Sotheby’s for $9.5 million, or $1.3 million per carat — setting the highest price ever for a fancy vivid blue gem.

Based on that sale, the Bulgari blue diamond alone is worth $15 million, said Kadakia. With the white diamond, the ring could well surpass that estimate.

The Wittelsbach-Graff Diamond, a 17th-century fancy deep grayish-blue 35.56-carat gem, holds the world record for any diamond and jewel sold at auction. Christie’s sold it in 2008 for $24.3 million.

Worldwide, Kadakia said, blue diamond production accounts for 0.0001 percent of all diamonds produced. And only one in 10 million diamonds have a color pure enough to qualify as fancy vivid blue and measuring over 10 carats.

The blue is determined by trace amounts of boron. The GIA scale runs from faint blue, light blue, fancy light blue, fancy blue, fancy intense blue, deep blue and — when the tonality and saturation are perfect — fancy vivid blue.

The Bulgari blue diamond probably came from the Premier Diamond Mine in South Africa, virtually the only mine in the world producing blue diamonds, Kadakia said. It is where the 3,100-carat rough Cullinan Diamond was found in 1905, and from which the British Crown Jewels the Great Star of Africa and Cullinan II diamonds were cut and polished.

Kadakia estimated that the Bulgari blue diamond came from a rough of at least 20 carats — the rest being lost to polishing.

The world’s largest known deep blue diamond is the 45.52-carat Hope Diamond, discovered in the 1600s, and housed at the Smithsonian.

Kadakia said that in the last 2 1/2 years he has seen a 15-20 percent rise in the number of clients investing in high-end jewelry and diamonds, both those who buy at auction and privately.

“In what other form could you carry $15 million to $20 million so easily?” he asked.

The ring will be officially unveiled at Christie’s Geneva gallery on Tuesday, with stops later in Hong Kong and London before returning to New York.

Market Equilibrium

We publish courtesy of RAPAPORT

By Avi Krawitz

RAPAPORT… An encouraging sign that the diamond market is on the road to recovery has become apparent in the past few weeks: Both polished and rough prices have maintained relative stability, as has demand. The result is that after a long period of volatility, the market seems to have achieved some equilibrium between supply and demand.

Stability in the polished market was evident at the August Mumbai show, where — despite strong trading — there were no real shortages of goods. In addition, prices remained reasonably steady, even though there were notable differences between buyers and sellers.

Similarly, the demand for rough has calmed somewhat and appears to be driven by manufacturing need, rather than speculative buying, resulting in, or possibly because of, price stability seen over the past two months.

As we approach the second anniversary of the Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the diamond market appears to be in a healthy place. However, this should not be taken for granted, as a number of underlying concerns could still spoil the party.

The most imminent of these are growing anxiety about the global economic recovery and the prospect that high volumes of extra rough may enter the market.

Additional rough could come from the Russian government, which said this week that it has been asked to start selling its $1 billion stockpile from the state repository, Gokhran; and from Zimbabwe’s Marange mine, which will hold its second Kimberley Process (KP)-approved sale of goods in the coming weeks.

An Antwerp-based diamond consultant to the Zimbabwe government indicated this week that Marange has the capacity to produce up to 40 million carats of diamonds per year valued at around $2 billion, which would catapult the country to standing as one of the world’s top three diamond producers. The coming September tender will likely be larger than the August tender, where approximately 900,000 carats of rough was sold.

Ethical issues aside, and given the apparent equilibrium in the market, the industry must ask if it can absorb such quantities of rough. The long-term effect of higher supply would be an easing of prices, a good thing — provided that the diamonds are sold in an economically responsible manner. The danger lies in the possibility that high volumes of rough will be dumped on the market at unrealistic prices in order to turn a quick profit, causing the market to crash as it did when prices spiraled after the Lehman Brothers debacle.

While the Russians have pledged to sell its excess goods responsibly, Zimbabwe has offered no such assurance – it certainly needs the money – and it is not clear that the government will plan its production or sales around economic outlook. While it has demonstrated the will to sell as many diamonds as possible as quickly as possible, the prices reported at its tenders so far signal reasonable levels, even if they appear slightly overstated.

As mentioned, bringing more rough on the market may not be a bad thing and may break the equilibrium in a positive way by stimulating more demand. However, its historic exposure to speculative price practice makes it vulnerable, which— becomes all the more real when considering the current economic environment.

After a period indicating improved activity in the U.S., recent reports have been less encouraging. The Commerce Department said the U.S. economy grew by 1.6 percent in the second quarter against its previous estimate of 2.4 percent. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that the recovery has slowed in recent months, adding that “consumer spending may continue to grow relatively slowly in the near term as households focus on repairing their balance sheets.”

His concerns were confirmed later when the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 2 percent year on year in August as employment concerns continue to weigh on consumers.

This doesn’t bode well for the diamond industry’s prospects for the Christmas season and many manufacturers seem wary of this reality as they plan their holiday stock purchases. For all intents and purposes, there should be above-average rough demand in August and September. However, most seem to be waiting to assess polished demand at the Hong Kong show before committing to a business outlook for the season. A strong show may well spur a flurry of trade, while the opposite is also true.

The result is that the current market equilibrium could be a consequence of uncertainty rather than economic principle. While mining companies, particularly De Beers, have expressed caution via restrained production, manufacturers may have settled into a new, lower level supply comfort zone, even if they seek rough from new sources.

But though it recognizes its own fragility, the diamond market welcomes the current stability, even if it is short-lived. It’s not a position the industry is accustomed to, especially in the past two years. What happens in the next quarter will likely tip the scale — it’s just a question of which way.

Note: This article is an excerpt from a market report that is sent to RapNet members on a weekly basis. To subscribe, go to www.rapnet.com or contact your local Rapaport office.

The writer can be contacted at avi@diamonds.net.

©Copyright 2010 by Martin Rapaport. All rights reserved.